According to Senior Vice-President Doug Anderson, “Federal voter support has been evolving considerably in recent weeks and new trends are emerging.”
Recent weeks have found the NDP voter support declining and Conservative support rising. Nationally, over the last two weeks, the Conservatives lead by seven points. They stand at 36%, compared to 29% for the NDP, 22% for the Liberals, 7% for the Greens, and 5% for the BQ. Looking back over a longer period, the data show Liberal support has been slowly trending upward since a precipitous drop during the election as the NDP surged.
The results in the two largest provinces are particularly challenging for the NDP, although with different implications.
In Quebec, NDP numbers have dropped fairly steeply, but the party remains firmly in first place while the Conservatives and Liberals have nearly risen to being equal with the BQ. Here, they stand at 36%, compared to 20% for the BQ, 18% for the Conservatives, 18% for the Liberals, and 6% for the Greens.
In Ontario, the Conservatives hold a five point lead over the Liberals in Ontario while the NDP has fallen into third place and has been losing ground. The Conservatives are at 38%, compared to 33% for the Liberals, 21% for the NDP, and 6% for the Greens.
Each week, Harris/Decima interviews just over 1000 Canadians through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey. The most recent data were gathered over two weeks, between October 27 and November 6, 2011 for just over 2,000 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.