Conservatives and Liberals Head into Break Neck and Neck

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The latest Canadian Press/Harris Decima measure of voting intention reveals

According to Chairman Allan Gregg “While others have reported a significant Conservative lead in national voter preference - with some going as far as to venture that the Conservatives are on the precipice of a majority - we see no evidence of this in our findings. To the contrary, our nation-wide soundings indicate that the Conservatives enjoy far less support today than they did in the 2008 election. In sum, our results would indicate that voter choice is such that no political party should assume that they are in a position to improve their current electoral fortunes.”

  • Nationally, in the last two weeks, the Conservatives and Liberals are neck and neck. The Conservatives stand at 31%, to 29% for the Liberals, 15% for the NDP, 11% for the BQ and 11% for the Greens.
  • In Quebec, the BQ remains well in front. Here, the BQ stands at 44%, to 23% for the Liberals, 11% for the Conservatives, 10% for the NDP, and 7% for the Greens.
  • In Ontario, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied. Both parties hold the support of 36% in this province, compared to 14% for the NDP and 12% for the Greens.
  • In BC, all four parties are competitive. The Conservatives lead with 32%, to 24% for the NDP, 21% for the Liberals, and 21% for the Greens.
  • The Prairies remain fertile ground for the Conservatives. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan they stand at 48%, to 25% for the Liberals, 22% for the NDP and 5% for the Greens. In Alberta, the Conservatives hold 47% support, to 24% for the Liberals, 14% for the NDP, and 12% for the Greens.
  • The Liberals hold a seven point lead in Atlantic Canada. Here, the Liberals are at 42%, to 35% for the Conservatives, 17% for the NDP and 6% for the Greens.

Each week, Harris/Decima interviews just over 1000 Canadians through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey. The most recent data were gathered between December 2 and December 13, 2010 for 2,022 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.