Conservatives Lead, but Majority out of Sight

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According to Harris/Decima Chairman Allan Gregg;”A week ago, Conservative strategists analyzing our numbers might have been tempted to trigger an early fall election. This week, that temptation would have disappeared. The Conservative lead has slipped from 8 points to 5 nationally and from a 7 point lead in Ontario to where they are now tied with the Liberals. The gender gap which had all but disappeared over the last two months is now re-emerging; once again to the Liberals advantage. Against this, we are also seeing both the Conservatives and the Liberals losing ground to the NDP in BC and all three federal parties are below 20% in the province of Quebec. Taken together, it would appear that the prospect of a fall election has dimmed considerably over the last week, as voters wish a pox on both the Conservatives and Liberals houses".

  • Nationally, over the last two weeks, the Conservatives hold a five point lead over the Liberals. The Conservatives stand at 31%, the Liberals 26%, the NDP 18%, the Greens 12% and the BQ 10%.
  • In Quebec, the Bloc continues to dominate, holding twice as much support as their nearest opponent. Here, the BQ stands at 41%, the Liberals 19%, the Conservatives 13%, the Greens 12%, and the NDP 11%.
  • The Liberals and Conservatives are now tied in Ontario. The Conservatives and Liberals both stand at 34%, followed by the NDP with 18% and the Greens with 12%.
  • In BC, the NDP remains a strong contender for popular support. Here, the Conservatives stand at 31%, followed by the NDP at 30%, the Liberals at 22% and the Greens at 13%.
  • Over the last two weeks, the Conservatives are losing some ground on the Prairies.
  • The Conservatives lead in Manitoba and Saskatchewan is down to 5 points. There, they stand at 39%, to 34% for then NDP, 19% for the Liberals and 7% for the Greens.
  • Alberta remains solidly behind the Conservatives where they hold 55% support, to 21% for the Liberals, 12% for the Greens and 9% for the NDP.
  • In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives and Liberals are tied. Here, both parties are at 34%, followed by the NDP with 22%, and the Greens with 6%.

These data were gathered through teleVox, Harris/Decima’s national telephone omnibus survey over two weeks between July 15 and July 25 for 2,030 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error are outlined below.

Atlantic - +/- 6.9%
Quebec - +/- 4.4%
Ontario - +/- 3.8%
Man/Sask - +/- 6.9%
Alberta +/- 6.9%
BC - +/- 6.1%